Level 6 • Economics

Econometrics II

ECO 312 — Semester VI
Course CodeECO 312
TypeB
ECTS6
SemesterVI
Course Description

Theory and Economic application f the linear multiple regression model, identification and structural estimation in simultaneous models, analyzing of economic policy and forecasting.

Course Objectives

This econometrics course is designed to provide students with the essential skills and knowledge necessary for conducting rigorous research in economics and finance. By delving into advanced econometric practices and models, students will gain the expertise needed to analyze complex economic phenomena using empirical data. Through the utilization of the STATA and R econometric packages, students will engage in hands-on learning experiences, mastering techniques for data manipulation, estimation, and interpretation of results. Moreover, laboratory sessions will offer students practical opportunities to apply theoretical concepts to real-world datasets, fostering a deeper understanding of econometric methodologies. By the course's conclusion, students will emerge equipped with the ability to conduct independent research, critically evaluate empirical findings, and contribute meaningfully to the advancement of economic and financial knowledge.

Key Concepts
  1. Binary Dependent Variable: A variable that takes on only two possible outcomes (e.g., yes/no, employed/unemployed).
  2. Proxy Variables and Measurement Error: Proxy variables substitute for unobserved or imperfectly measured variables, while measurement error refers to inaccuracies in data that can bias estimates.
  3. Instrumental Variables (IV): Variables used to obtain consistent parameter estimates when explanatory variables are endogenous, often due to measurement error or omitted factors.
  4. Panel Data: Data that follows the same subjects over multiple time periods, allowing for analysis of both cross-sectional and time-series variations.
  5. Difference-in-Differences (DiD): A quasi-experimental design that compares changes in outcomes over time between treatment and control groups to estimate causal effects.
  6. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM): An estimation technique that uses moment conditions derived from theoretical models to efficiently and consistently estimate parameters.
  7. Simultaneous Equations: A system where multiple interdependent relationships are modeled together, requiring specialized methods to address the mutual determination of variables.
  8. Limited Dependent Variable Models: Models designed for outcomes that are restricted in range (such as binary or censored variables), often implemented using techniques like Logit or Probit.
  9. Multinomial Variable Models: Models used when the dependent variable has more than two unordered categories, such as choices among several alternatives.
  10. Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD): A quasi-experimental approach that identifies causal effects by exploiting a cutoff or threshold in the assignment of treatment.
Course Outline
WeekTopics
1Introduction to the: Course, Syllabus, Textbook and Evaluation Method.
2Binary Dependent Variable, chapter 14 at Cameron and Trivedi, pg 463: This chapter considers the simplest case of binary outcomes, where there are two possible outcomes. Examples include whether or not an individual is employed and whether or not a consumer makes a purchase
3Proxy variables and measurement error, chapter 9 Wooldrige, pg.294: In this chapter, we return to the much more serious problem of correlation between the error, u, and one or more of the explanatory variables.
4Instrumental Variable, chapter 15 Wooldrige and chapter 4 Angrist and Pischke, pg.495: IV methods were pioneered to solve the problem of bias from measurement error in regression models. One of the most important results in the statistical theory of linear models is that a regression coefficient is biased towards zero when the regressor of interest is measured with random errors. Instrumental variables methods can be used to eliminate this sort of bias.
5Panel Data and chapter 21 cameron and trivedi, pg. 697: panel data, also called longitudinal data, contain periodically repeated observations of the same subjects, they have a large potential for resolving issues that cross-section models cannot satisfactorily handle.
6Difference-in-Difference Methods, chapter 9 in Cunningham: The difference-in-differences design is an early quasi-experimental identification strategy for estimating causal effects that predates the randomized experiment by roughly eighty-five years. In this chapter, I will explain this popular and important research design both in its simplest form, where a group of units is treated at the same time, and the more common form, where groups of units are treated at different points in time.
7Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), a robust econometric technique that leverages moment conditions derived from economic theory. Students will learn to construct and validate these moment conditions, select optimal weighting matrices, and assess estimator efficiency. The course covers the asymptotic properties of GMM estimators and includes hands-on sessions using statistical software.
8Midterm
9Simultaneous equations, chapter 16 Wooldridge, chapter 2 C&T, pg.534: The objective is to bring into the discussion several key ideas and concepts that have more general relevance. Although the analysis is restricted to linear models, many insights are routinely applied to nonlinear models.
10Limited dependent variable models, chapter 17 Wooldrige, pg.559: we studied the linear probability model, which is simply an appli<.>ation of, the multiple regression model to a binary dependent variable. A binary dependent vamable is an example of a limited dependent variable (LDV). Logit/Probit
11Multinomial variable models, chapter 17 Wooldrige and chapter 15 C&T, pg.559: The preceding chapter considered models for discrete outcome variables that can take one of two possible values. Here we consider several possible outcomes, usually mutually exclusive.
12Regression Discontinuity Design, chapter 6 Cunningham: The reason RDD is so appealing to many is because of its ability to convincingly eliminate selection bias. This appeal is partly due to the fact that its underlying identifying assumptions are viewed by many as easier to accept and evaluate.
13Project Presentations
14Project Presentations
Learning Outcomes
  1. Develop proficiency in advanced econometric techniques and methodologies, spanning topics such as binary dependent variables, measurement error, instrumental variables, panel data analysis, differencein-differences methods, simultaneous equations, limited dependent variable models, multinomial variable models, regression discontinuity design, and resampling methods.
  2. Cultivate the ability to critically analyze econometric models and methodologies, identify potential sources of bias or error, and implement appropriate strategies to address them.
  3. Gain hands-on experience with econometric software and tools, such as STATA and R, in conducting empirical analysis, interpreting results, and drawing meaningful conclusions from economic and financial data.
  4. Develop the skills necessary to design and execute empirical research studies in economics and related fields, including formulating research questions, selecting appropriate econometric methods, collecting and analyzing data, and communicating findings effectively.
  5. Deepen understanding of causal inference methods, including quasi-experimental designs and identification strategies, to estimate causal effects in observational data settings and mitigate biases inherent in econometric analysis.
  6. Recognize the interdisciplinary nature of econometrics and its applications across various domains, including economics, finance, public policy, and social sciences, and appreciate the broader implications of econometric analysis for decision-making and policy formulation.
Assessment
MethodQty% Each
Homework210
Presentation110
Case Study25
Term Paper130
Final Exam130
Textbooks

Wooldridge J.M.(2015). Introduction to Econometrics. Cengage Learning Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: methods and applications. Cambridge university press. Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist's companion. Princeton university press. Cunningham, S. (2021). Causal inference: The mixtape. Yale university press. Gaillac, C., & L’Hour, J. (2019). Machine learning for econometrics, lecture notes ensae paris.

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